The two preseason exhibitions are out of the way and the Memphis Tigers open their season Monday against Missouri. Will this be the year Penny Hardaway finally takes his team deep in the tournament?
Tiger Blueprint contributors have made their predictions for the season with some more optimistic than others. They also shared where they think the ceiling and floor are for this year’s team. Let’s get into it.
Hitmen Hoops @HitmenHoops
Regular Season Prediction: 25-6
Postseason Prediction: Round of 32
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: 3rd in AAC
Analysis: Memphis will enter AAC play with four losses from their extremely tough non-conference schedule, losing two in Maui, Ole Miss at home, and Clemson on the road. On paper, Memphis should be favored in every game in AAC play, but it’s extremely tough to go undefeated in conference play. The AAC is projected to be horrible this season. I could see them slipping up on the road twice in AAC play, but I would be shocked if they lost more than two conference games.
Memphis has an extremely underrated backcourt in Tyrese Hunter, the former Big 12 Freshman of the Year, and PJ Haggerty, the national Freshman of the Year, with Baraka Okojie and Jared Harris coming off the bench. I believe this is their strongest asset.
Memphis’ floor and ceiling will be determined most by whether they can shoot the ball. They shot terribly from the free throw and three-point line in their two exhibition games. I know that shots don’t fall sometimes, but Memphis doesn’t have many capable shooters on its roster. Colby Rogers is elite and will get a lot of minutes. PJ Carter is also elite, but his defense will limit his time on the court. Jourdain shot 40% last season, but it came off limited volume. Tyrese Hunter is a streaky shooter at 34%. Outside of those guys, nobody else on the roster is known for their shooting. Haggerty, Cisse, Baraka, Dain, and Smith all shot below 30% from 3PT last season. PJ Haggerty must emerge as a 3PT threat, or teams will simply adjust and cut off driving lanes.
The floor would include losing 2-3 players early in the season due to concerns over whether they will receive their full amount of NIL. The NCAA investigations are expected to drop mid-season as well, which could end up forcing the new AD to “clean up the program.” These distractions end up causing Memphis to miss the NCAA tourney for the second consecutive season.
Chris @901chrisl
Regular Season Prediction: 20-11
Postseason Prediction: Must win AAC Tournament for NCAA Tournament bid
Ceiling: 24-7 Regular season, Second weekend of NCAA Tournament
Floor: 15-16 Regular season
Analysis: This is a team that definitely has the talent to return to the NCAA tournament. However, I have huge concerns on how the whole team will mesh. PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter are both great players. Will they be able to mesh? Will they be worried about their NIL all season? Sounds silly, but these are valid concerns with the current state of the program. I’m leaning toward Penny Hardaway and Memphis missing out on the big dance for the second straight season. Too much chaos and non sense around the program to be successful.
Spencer @Spencerrr901
Regular Season Prediction: 23-8
Postseason Prediction: AAC Tournament Champions, 9/10 seed in NCAA Tournament
Ceiling: AAC Regular Season and Tournament Champions, 7/8 seed in NCAA Tournament
Floor: 19-12 Regular season, Declined NIT invite
Analysis: Strong defensive roster but shooting is questionable. Penny Hardaway never fails to upset me with rotations and crucial play calling.
Blake @blake_fussell
Regular Season Prediction: 17-14
Postseason Prediction: AAC Tournament Runner-up, Declined NIT bid
Ceiling: 22-9 Regular season, AAC Tournament Champions, 8/9 seed in NCAA Tournament
Floor: 14-17 Regular season, AAC Tournament Semifinals
Analysis: Memphis has the athletes and defense to give good teams a hard time. But I think their success depends on when the locker room, ego, and general nonsense emerges. If Penny benches the butthurt players and establishes a sensical rotation, the Tigers could be a tournament team. But I’m not getting my hopes up.
Dillon @dillon901
Regular Season Prediction: 21-10
Postseason Prediction: AAC Tournament Champions, NCAA Tournament bid
Ceiling: 26-5 Regular season, AAC Champions, Second weekend of NCAA Tournament
Floor: 18-13 Regular season
Analysis: My prediction is Memphis will go 21-10 in the regular season and for the first time they will finally win the American Athletic regular season title. From the small sample size that I’ve seen so far, I feel as though the Memphis defense that we are used to is back. That alone when executed correctly like we’ve seen in the past should give many AAC teams a very troubling time. Combine that with the pure talent this team has I predict Memphis will be back in the NCAA tournament where they belong. And if this team is able to gel and get hot in March like Penny Hardaway coached teams have in the past, don’t be surprised when they win a game or two in the big dance.
Hogi @iamopium22
Regular Season Prediction: 22-9
Postseason Prediction: At-large 10 seed in NCAA Tournament
Ceiling: AAC Regular season champions, 5/6 seed in NCAA Tournament
Floor: 19-12 Regular season, miss NCAA Tournament
Analysis: Memphis has the pieces to be an NCAA Tournament team, but whether they can put it all together remains the question. Programs with this much roster and staff turmoil typically don’t reach the Big Dance. However, with enough opportunities in non-conference play and a relatively weak American Athletic Conference, Memphis could potentially break this trend. The Tigers are likely to be a bubble team throughout the season, with some projections having them in and others leaving them out.
Brandon @BigBadBumgarner
Regular Season Prediction: 22-9
Postseason Prediction: AAC Tournament Champions, NCAA Tournament bid
Ceiling: 27-4 Regular season, Sweet 16 appearance
Floor: 18-13 Regular season
