Things look promising for Memphis football heading into its 2023 campaign.
In a year where fourth-year head coach Ryan Silverfield must deliver, the Tigers welcome in the most talented roster they’ve had in his tenure. And in a seemingly weaker AAC, it’d be a major let-down if Memphis doesn’t finish at least top 3 in the league this season.
If Memphis lives up to expectations, it’d inject new-found life into the program as the Tigers pursue a new home in conference realignment. If it doesn’t, however, things could go from bad to worse and difficult changes across the board could be necessary.
Tiger Blueprint lead football writer Chris Latham and senior editor Roman Cleary give their game-by-game takes on how this program-defining season will go for Memphis football.
vs. Bethune-Cookman
Chris: This one should be like a walk-through for the Tigers. Bethune-Cookman is an FCS school that went 2-9 last season and is going through a coaching change. Tigers improve to 1-0 on the new season with a 56-14 win.
Record: 1-0
Roman: It’s unfortunate that Bethune-Cookman had to fire Ed Reed earlier this year. This game would be a lot more interesting if he were there.
Watching Memphis dominate an FCS opponent coached by Reed would’ve been much more fun than watching it dominate an FCS opponent not coached by him. Nonetheless, we will see the latter.
Record: 1-0
at Arkansas State
Chris: Notably, Arkansas State has not been a team Memphis has had the luxury of just looking over the last two years. The Red Wolves, led by head coach Butch Jones have given the Tigers a real run for their money the last two seasons. In 2021, the Tigers seemingly had the game in control at half. However, Jones made a QB change and suddenly Memphis had to make plays down the stretch to win that game 55-50. Likewise, Memphis had issues putting them away last season, winning only 44-32.
So, back to reality now, Arkansas State has been terrible under Jones. He has just a 5-19 record in his first two seasons. While they do bring in a pretty good quarterback in JT Shrout, Memphis will handle business in week two with a 35-10 win.
Record: 2-0
Roman: Memphis has been heavily tested by Arkansas State two years in a row now. The Tigers won a 55-50 nail-biter in Jonesboro two seasons ago, and won another close battle in Memphis last season. And though Memphis won the latter game by 12, it also trailed 32-31 with 4:22 left in the contest.
Don’t fool yourselves here. It doesn’t matter how bad Arkansas State has been under Butch Jones. The Red Wolves are clearly desperate to beat the Tigers; and are more than capable of doing so, especially in a home environment.
Now, will that likely happen? No, but it’s certainly possible. This game will be far from a cake-walk for Memphis.
Record: 2-0
vs. Navy
Chris: I’d be lying to you if I said playing Navy in a short week was ideal. Memphis will return from Jonesboro and immediately have to flip the script to Navy and the triple option.
Here’s the good news: Navy is not expected to be good this season. In fact, it has a new coach for the first time in 15 years. If Memphis comes in prepared, and ready to battle, it will come out victorious. I expect it to do so with a low scoring 28-17 win.
Record: 3-0 (1-0 AAC)
Roman: If there’s one thing Memphis has done right in the Silverfield era, it’s beating the breaks off Navy on an annual basis. The Midshipmen look especially lifeless this season, and their performance versus Notre Dame further supports that.
Memphis dominates this one despite the short week.
Record: 3-0 (1-0 AAC)
vs. Missouri (Neutral Field in St. Louis)
Chris: Missouri is obviously the highest magnitude game on this schedule. It returns quarterback Brady Cook and a very stout defense. While Cook wasn’t very good last season, Missouri’s defense was. It ranked fourth in the SEC in 2021 in total defense with some key players returning. While I would love for Memphis to go into St. Louis and shock the world, I don’t see it happening. Missouri hands Memphis its first loss of the season 42-24.
Record: 3-1 (1-0 AAC)
Roman: Missouri is far from the most daunting SEC opponent. But this game simply smells like impending disaster for Memphis.
Playing an SEC team away from the Liberty Bowl—sorry, Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium—isn’t exactly in the Tigers’ wheelhouse. Memphis takes its first loss of the season in brutal fashion here.
Record: 3-1 (1-0 AAC)
vs. Boise St.
Chris: Things don’t slow down here, folks. Memphis hosts fellow Group of Five powerhouse Boise State in week four. As we all know, Boise St. has been the standard in GO5 football the last two decades. The Broncos went 10-4 last season and 8-0 in Mountain West play, before falling in the MWC title game.
This team can flat-out run the ball right down your throat. It averaged over 200 rushing yards a game last season and is expected to exceed that this season. The Broncos return their quarterback, top two running backs and top four receivers from last season. The only weak spot could come in the offensive line where they have to fill some holes. Overall, Memphis plays a really good team.
All things considered; I do have the Tigers taking this one 42-38. Seth Hennigan drives the Tigers down the field late and punches it in to put the Broncos away.
Record: 4-1 (1-0 AAC)
Roman: Boise State is the odds-on preseason favorite in the Mountain West, and could very well come into this game as the best non-power team in America. The Broncos return a large core of a group that won 10 games and went undefeated in conference play last season.
Silverfield’s Tigers are likely overmatched in this one. Memphis comes up short in this Group of Five dream-match.
Record: 3-2 (1-0 AAC)
vs. Tulane
Chris: The final game of this tough stretch for the Tigers comes at home against Tulane, the conference favorites. The Green Wave return quarterback Michael Pratt, but also lose running back Tyjae Spears and a few starting wideouts and offensive linemen. I believe Tulane is overrated this season, and the gap between them and Memphis is quite smaller than many think. This will be a close game from start to finish. I have Tulane coming into Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium and stealing one from Memphis on a last second field goal. The Green Wave take this one 31-28.
Record: 4-2 (1-1 AAC)
Roman: Memphis comes off its bye week in perhaps the worst way possible. Facing what it is arguably the best team in the American is far from ideal. Tulane also returns quarterback Michael Pratt and a decent portion of its Cotton Bowl winning team, though it also misses running back Tyjae Spears and others.
Ultimately, it’s difficult to trust Memphis’ coaching staff to navigate through this predicament. The Tigers drop back to .500.
Record: 3-3 (1-1 AAC)
at UAB
Chris: This prediction is pretty easy for me. I don’t think UAB is good this year. While I could see the Tigers slipping up in a road game against a less talented team this year, it won’t happen here. Tigers win 42-28.
Record 5-2 (2-1 AAC)
Roman: The Battle for the Bones is back. And though it’ll never be what it was in Conference USA, it’s cool to see it return nonetheless. UAB went 7-6 last season, but lost just one home game in the process.
That loss came against C-USA champion UTSA, another new addition to the AAC, in a 44-38 double-overtime thriller. The Blazers also return the majority of their roster from last season. Still, UAB is admittedly not the most talented squad.
A program with a more stable culture would likely pull out a win here. But Memphis unfortunately isn’t there right now. The Tigers’ downward spiral continues here.
Record: 3-4 (1-2 AAC)
at North Texas
Chris: This is where Memphis slips up. First year head coach Eric Morris will have his guys ready to go. Memphis will come out sleepwalking and go down big in the first half. They will inch their way back into the game in the second half, but it will be too little too late. Tigers lose 41-31.
Record 5-3 (2-2 AAC)
Roman: Memphis may have beaten North Texas last season, but it honestly didn’t deserve it. The Mean Green were the better team in that game. And they would’ve scored a massive road victory over the Tigers had it not been for three turnovers in the second half that each led to Memphis touchdowns, including two pick-sixes.
This year’s matchup will be in Denton, Texas, a homecoming for Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan. It won’t be a good one for the Tigers’ third-year starter, however.
It’s difficult to envision the Tigers getting that fortunate defensively this time around. The same can be said for Silverfield and offensive coordinator Tim Cramsey’s offense being able to make up for the lack of turnovers. Those factors, along with UNT’s home field advantage, lead Memphis to its fifth straight defeat.
Record: 3-5 (1-3 AAC)
vs. USF
Chris: Silverfield and the Tigers play host to USF, which is picked to finish No. 13 in the conference. The Tigers handle business here 55-20.
Record: 6-3 (3-2 AAC)
Roman: Memphis has hit total rock bottom at this point, and has the perfect bounce-back opponent in South Florida. The Bulls are expected to be among the worst teams in the American.
The Tigers win a football game for the first time in nearly two months.
Record: 4-5 (2-3 AAC)
at Charlotte
Chris: The Tigers then travel on the road to face the team projected to finish last in the conference: Charlotte. I’m not going to bore you with analysis here. Tigers win 60-21
Record: 7-3 (4-2 AAC)
Roman: Memphis follows up the win over South Florida by facing another lowly AAC foe in Charlotte.
The Tigers win two in a row to get back to .500.
Record: 5-5 (3-3 AAC)
vs. SMU
Chris: Things pick up again here with a big home matchup against the SMU Mustangs. This should be a game with high stakes, perhaps even a conference title berth on the line. SMU loses a lot, but also gained a lot in the portal. I have Tiger fans going home happy with a 40-34 win.
Record: 8-3 (5-2 AAC)
Roman: SMU is probably the best rival Memphis has left in the American. One fun fact about this feud in football is that the road team hasn’t won since 2018, when the Tigers beat the Mustangs in Dallas.
The trend won’t stop here. Memphis gains bowl eligibility for the 10th year in a row with its signature win of 2023.
Record: 6-5 (4-3 AAC)
at Temple
Chris: Playing Temple on the road should bring a few things to mind for Tiger fans. For the record, Joey did catch it. Anyway, this game could be tricky for Memphis, but I think they get it done. The Tigers end the season on a high note with a 32-22 win in Philly.
Final Record: 9-3 (6-2 AAC)
Roman: Memphis hasn’t beaten Temple in Philadelphia since 2014, and has done nothing but suffer there ever since. In 2015, the Paxton Lynch-led Tigers once ranked No. 13 in the country suffered their third straight defeat against Temple. In 2019, Joey caught it. And in 2021, a lowly Owls team handed Memphis its second straight loss after the Tigers started 3-0 with a win over Mississippi State.
Lincoln Financial Field is a place of misery for Memphis football, and the Tigers’ bad luck continues here. It doesn’t matter how good or bad Temple is. Memphis just can’t seem to buy a win in Philly.
The Tigers finish the regular season 6-6 for the third consecutive season, which likely raises major questions about the program’s long-term future and stability.
Final Record: 6-6 (4-4 AAC)
