Memphis’ non-conference schedule was released just a few days ago, and it projects to be one of the nation’s toughest slates.
After examining the matchups and the rosters, we’ve done our best to come up with realistic and non-biased predictions for how the non-conference portion of the Tigers’ schedule will play out.
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Memphis has one of the TOUGHEST 2023-2024 non-conference schedules in the country.
A ton of Q1 and Q2 opportunities for Memphis below, according to 2023-2024 projections from Bart Torvik:
Memphis starts the regular season with a home matchup against Jackson State of the SWAC. Expect this to be a relatively easy win for Memphis. The “other Tigers” don’t have the size or athleticism to keep up with the Tigers on the inside.
JSU does have some solid talent at the guard spot, though, including Ole Miss transfer Daeshun Ruffin, leading scorer Ken Evans Jr., and even middle school YouTube sensation Chase Adams.
Missouri (Away): WIN
Missouri is a team with loads of experience, and winning in an away environment (especially in the SEC) could prove difficult for a Memphis roster that lacks continuity. However, I expect Memphis to take this in a very close game due to their talent advantage.
Missouri lost a lot of pieces from last year’s roster that ended up as a seven-seed in the NCAA tournament. Their two leading scorers, Kobe Brown and D’Moi Hodge, left for the NBA draft. And Memphis’ defense should be enough to slow down a Missouri offense that lacks perimeter scoring pop outside of Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill.
Watch out for Aidan Shaw, a sophomore forward who has impressed in practices thus far. Regardless, Memphis will have a significant frontcourt advantage if DeAndre Williams returns.
Alabama State (Home): WIN
Expect Memphis to start the season 3-0 in 2023 following a defeat of a second SWAC opponent in Alabama State. The ASU Hornets return their two leading scorers in guards Isaiah Range and TJ Madlock. Take note of Range, who is an effective shooter from the outside.
This one, however, should be a comfortable blowout victory against a team that lacks the size to compete with Memphis — noticing a trend?
Michigan (Neutral): WIN
The toughest matchup of Memphis’ schedule thus far is the Michigan Wolverines. We covered this matchup before on the Tiger Blueprint, so you can read our analysis and why we think the Tigers will win here.
Expect another close game for the Tigers, with a key matchup at the power forward spot between DeAndre Williams and Olivier Nkamhoua.
*Memphis will face off against the winner of Villanova and Texas Tech if they advance past Michigan*
Even with those two out of the picture, Ole Miss’ starting five still has immense talent. Austin Nunez, Allen Flanigan, Jaemyn Brakefield, and Jamarion Sharp are an impressive core of talent around returning star guard Matthew Murrell.
Their bench, however, could be improved and is an area where Memphis should see a significant advantage. If Memphis is to win this one, they’ll be able to wear down an Ole Miss squad with a bench that only consists of Saint Peter’s transfer Jaylen Murray, returning guard T.J. Caldwell, and four freshmen.
However, the talent they added this off-season isn’t comparable to the roster they had this past season. Zeb Jackson, Joe Bamisile, and Max Shulga are decent pieces with plenty of experience, but they won’t overcome Memphis’ talent. I also struggle to see who steps up as the #1 option.
This game won’t be high-scoring, but I expect the Tigers to win comfortably with a dominant second half.
Texas A&M (Away): LOSS
I expect Memphis to lose in another difficult matchup against an SEC opponent. The Aggies are a talented, experienced, and tough squad who return what feels like their entire roster from last season.
Wade Taylor IV will be one of the best players Memphis sees all season, and Tyrece Radford is an excellent compliment in the backcourt. Sophomore Solomon Washington is a lockdown defender primed for a breakout in more minutes this season. And Julius Marble and Henry Coleman III are effective frontcourt pieces on both ends.
Texas A&M is one of the most challenging and physical teams Memphis will play against, and I don’t think the offense proves consistent enough to win this in a road environment. The Aggies take this one going away in the second half, but Memphis will do their best to keep it close, led by DeAndre Williams.
Clemson (Home): WIN
Clemson is a solid team with a lot of returning experience, but I don’t expect Memphis to have too much trouble winning this game.
Chase Hunter and Joe Girard III are talented and experienced ACC guards, while P.J. Hall is an All-ACC forward. NC State transfer Jack Clark is a versatile piece in the frontcourt, and he should win a starting job. They also have four returning freshmen, none of which had major roles in year one. I like what I saw from Joshua Beadle in games I watched of Clemson last season. A breakout from him wouldn’t be shocking.
If Memphis can slow down Hunter and Hall, they’ll win this game by double digits. The defense comes through, and the offense does enough to win another.
Virginia (Home): LOSS
Considering Memphis is at home in this one, this might be a controversial take, but don’t be shocked if Virginia takes this game on the road.
UVA always has an elite defense, no matter who’s in the rotation. Merrimack transfer and NEC DPOY Jordan Minor was a big pickup for the Cavaliers. They’ll pair him in the frontcourt with sophomore Ryan Dunn. Dunn is primed for a breakout this season with his athleticism, impressive defense, and expanding offensive game. Reece Beekman will be a star and will likely run the show for Virginia. The reigning ACC DPOY is always in the passing lanes and is an impressive playmaker offensively.
Isaac McKneely is an elite perimeter shooter from the guard spot, and Andrew Rohde (St. Thomas transfer) is an intriguing offensive player. Dante Harris adds solid depth at point guard as well.
Memphis has a considerable size advantage, but Virginia’s defensive system is built around packing the paint and forcing perimeter jump shots. Virginia doesn’t have the scoring pop that Memphis does, but they will look to play this game at their pace, which is a very slow one.
A Memphis win will require consistent perimeter creation from the guard spot in the late shot clock. And that is something the offense isn’t necessarily built around.
Vanderbilt (Home): WIN
Vanderbilt is a team that really came on toward the end of last season under Jerry Stackhouse. It was a team built around their guards, and they return two of those key pieces in star Tyrin Lawrence and Ezra Manjon. They’ve added transfer Evan Taylor to the backcourt mix as well. Versatile transfers Tasos Kamateros and Ven-Allen Lubin make up the frontcourt.
Last season’s Vanderbilt team didn’t hit their stride until late in conference play, and I think the same holds true this season with some new pieces on the roster. Memphis is good enough across the board to win this one by double digits.
Austin Peay (Home): WIN
Memphis ends their non-conference slate and a tough stretch of games by beating Austin Peay in a big way.
The worst team in the ASUN from last year is bound to get better this season. This is especially considering they added talented guards DeMarcus Sharp and JaMonta’ Black from Northwestern State. While those two are loads to deal with, there isn’t much talent around them. Again, Memphis has a significant size and talent advantage over an opponent, which should lead them to a win.
Austin Peay added Hansel Emmanuel this off-season, a player I’m excited to watch play. If you haven’t heard of him, I recommend reading up on his inspiring story.
FINAL RECORD
While Memphis has one of the nation’s toughest schedules in the non-conference, Penny Hardaway has certainly prepared his Tigers squad to have success. These predictions count on the NCAA granting DeAndre Williams his eligibility for this upcoming season. While that is something that Penny Hardaway and company expect to happen, it’s never guaranteed with the NCAA.
The Battle 4 Atlantis will be a measuring stick for this Memphis team, as they’ll battle against the likes of Michigan, Arkansas, Villanova, North Carolina, and Texas Tech. Those are all formidable opponents who Memphis could very much lose to. While a championship win in the Bahamas isn’t out of the picture, a 2-1 finish seems more likely for Memphis based on the competition.
December starts with three challenging road games for the Tigers, fresh off the Battle 4 Atlantis trip. It’ll be important for Memphis not to overlook Ole Miss and VCU before facing off against Texas A&M. Virginia and Clemson are also difficult back-to-back tests for the Tigers despite being at home for both matchups.
We expect Memphis to finish the non-conference slate with a record of 10-3. This record is subject to change depending on how the bracket plays out in the Bahamas.
