Memphis faces their second consecutive ranked ACC opponent inside the Forum on Tuesday, December 19th. The #23 ranked Tigers will play #22 Virginia at 6 p.m. ESPN2 will have the coverage of this top-25 matchup.
What can Memphis expect out of Virginia?
Virginia Roster Preview
Three-time National Coach of the Year Tony Bennett leads the charge for a 9-1 Virginia team. Bennett, one of the best coaches in the sport, is in his 15th season with the program.
Virginia is off to a solid start in their 2023 campaign, with wins over Florida, West Virginia, Texas A&M, and Syracuse. The Cavaliers also have a blowout loss to Wisconsin on their record.
Bennett’s teams are known for their “pack-line” defense. The defensive style is designed to protect the paint and protect dribble penetration. Bennett’s teams also put pressure on the ball and prevent post entries. If the ball does get into the post, expect Virginia to send a double team quickly. These double teams put pressure on the big to make good decisions with the ball.
Virginia has long been known for being one of the top defensive teams in college basketball because of this defensive system. With the paint clogged, it puts pressure on opposing guards to consistently make good decisions and connect on perimeter jump shots. The Cavaliers are ranked #2 in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
Bennett and Virginia also have a distinctive offensive style known as the “Mover Blocker” offense. This offensive system is notoriously slow-paced. The Cavaliers prioritize high shot quality, even if it comes late in the shot clock. Virginia ranks dead last in the NCAA in possessions per game at just 63.4. Memphis, for comparison, ranks 49th at 75.5 possessions per game.
The offense features two bigs as screeners and three guards as movers. The bigs will set pin-down and flare screens for the guards to come off of, as the offense is consistently in motion. The guards will read the defense, react to its positioning, and move with curls or cuts in response. If the defense fails to navigate this screening action effectively, Virginia’s offense will generate open looks from the perimeter and in the paint throughout the game.
Backcourt Rotation
Senior guard Reece Beekman is the star of this UVA team. The ACC’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Beekman is a two-way force. He’s a true lockdown defender and a menace in the passing lanes, collecting 2.7 steals per game. With the departure of longtime point guard Kihei Clark in the offseason, Virginia placed a more prominent offensive load on Beekman’s shoulders. He responded by increasing his scoring production into double digits, averaging 12.5 points per game. Despite being just an average shooter, Beekman is a good finisher around the rim. He’s best as a playmaker, though, an area where he’s averaged over five APG for three consecutive seasons.
2023-24 Watchlist: UVA’s Reece Beekman is a steady two-way presence and hounding on-ball defender. The 6'3" lead guard operates with veteran poise and can manipulate a defense at all three levels. Never too high, never too low — plays with excellent rhythm. Reigning ACC DPOY. pic.twitter.com/DFwD1H2e2P
Next to Beekman in the backcourt is sophomore Isaac McKneely. The 6’4 guard is one of the best shooters in college basketball. He has connected on a ridiculous 27 of 49 attempts from beyond the arc this season. McKneely generates most of his offense as an off-ball shooter in Virginia’s “Mover Blocker” offense, which consistently gives him open looks on the perimeter. While he’s not as effective at creating on the ball, he can put the ball on the deck and finish in the paint as well.
Andrew Rohde is the third guard in the backcourt. Rohde is a sophomore who transferred from St. Thomas (MN), where he averaged 17.1 PPG in his freshman campaign. He transferred up and found himself in the ACC for his second collegiate season. However, he has struggled to maintain the same production at Virginia. Rohde has averaged 6.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game this season. Regardless, the 6’6 wing is a talented and versatile player. Rohde is a solid spot-up shooter, a crafty finisher, and has a good handle. He got a good amount of run at the point guard position last season, and he thrived in this role with his pick-and-roll navigation, above-average handle for his size, and touch inside.
Backcourt Depth
Despite an injury to backup point guard Dante Harris, Virginia’s backcourt still has some intriguing pieces off the bench.
Redshirt freshman Leon Bond III is a future star for the Cavaliers. The 6’5 wing averages 7.2 points and 3.9 rebounds per game on 58.2% shooting from the floor. Bond is a solid defender and explosive athlete who operates primarily from the mid-range area and in the paint on offense. He likes to generate post touches, using his athleticism to rise over defenders for inside finishes or mid-range jumpers. Despite being just 6’5, Bond can operate as a face-up mid-post player or with his back to the basket on the interior. He’s a true glue guy for the Cavaliers and can play various roles and positions for Tony Bennett.
The injury to Harris opened the door for true freshman Elijah Gertrude to see an increased role for Virginia. Gertrude was initially supposed to redshirt his freshman campaign. Despite being just four games into his college career, Gertrude is likely the best pure shot creator on the Virginia roster. He’s averaged six points per game on 45.0% shooting from the floor while playing 14.5 minutes a night. Gertrude is an athletic 6’4 guard with a strong handle and smooth jumper. While his shot hasn’t come along just yet (1-7 from three), he has a nice form and has shown the ability to knock them down in the past. Gertrude will run some point guard as a sparkplug off the bench for the Cavaliers with his combination of athleticism, shot-creation, solid interior finishing, and transition playmaking ability.
Junior Taine Murray is the third guard off the bench for Tony Bennett. The 6’5 wing from New Zealand averages 2.6 points per game on 50% shooting from the floor in 11.4 minutes. He primarily operates as a shooter, where he’s connected on four of his eight attempts this season. Murray has grown more comfortable on the court this season as he gets minutes at the back end of Virginia’s rotation.
Frontcourt Rotation
Virginia’s offensive weakness is their lack of a true post presence. Merrimack transfer Jordan Minor was a big pickup for the Cavaliers this off-season. The reigning NEC Player of the Year was expected to play a significant role for Tony Bennett’s squad this season, presumably replacing the production of graduated forward Jayden Gardner at the ‘four’ spot. However, Minor has faltered significantly in a Virginia uniform, falling entirely out of the rotation just ten games into the season. He’s averaging just 1.3 points per game on 28.6% shooting this year, while playing 7.4 minutes per contest.
Sophomore Ryan Dunn starts at the power forward spot for Virginia. The 6’8 forward is a big wing with versatility as a ball handler. Dunn is one of the best athletes in college basketball and is an elite defender as well, possessing a 7’1 wingspan. Dunn averages 8.9 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, shooting 54.4% from the floor. He also averages a ridiculous 2.5 blocks and 2.3 steals per game. While Dunn’s self-creation has yet to blossom, he’s a good interior finisher, solid playmaker, and mid-range shot-maker offensively.
Fifth-year senior Jacob Groves plays center for Virginia. Groves is the brother of Tanner Groves, who he played alongside at Eastern Washington and Oklahoma. The 6’9 forward averages 7.8 points and 2.3 rebounds per game on 50.9% shooting from the floor. Groves is a stretch big man who has connected on 39.3% of his three-point attempts this season. While he can score at the rim, he prefers operating from the perimeter, giving the Cavaliers good spacing.
Frontcourt Depth
Virginia’s frontcourt depth has taken a hit with the struggles of Jordan Minor early on. True freshman Blake Buchanan is the lone big off the bench. Bennett has given him a more prominent role than expected, playing 16.9 minutes per game and even starting four contests. Buchanan has shown intriguing flashes as a post scorer, possessing good instincts offensively and nifty footwork for a young player. He can finish around the rim and draw fouls well, which he did effectively against Florida, where he shot 16 free throws. Buchanan averages 5 points and 3.3 rebounds per game on 46.9% shooting from the floor.
Prediction
Ranked for the first time this season, Memphis will look to take advantage of another rowdy home crowd against #22 Virginia.
The offensive and defensive styles that the Cavaliers bring to the table are something many opponents struggle with. Virginia tries to limit possessions with their slow pace offensively while they suffocate you with their pressure defensively. The pressure will be on Memphis guards in this matchup, with Virginia’s defense aiming to prevent the Tigers’ dribble penetration.
Guards like Caleb Mills, David Jones, and especially Jahvon Quinerly will be crucial for Memphis if they hope to win against a second consecutive ranked opponent at home. They need to be decisive with their shot selection from the perimeter, take what the defensive gives them, and not be lazy with their passes. If the Tiger guards – and Memphis as a whole – struggle to shoot, it might be a long night for the home team. With the pace the Cavaliers play at, a 5-point deficit against Virginia can feel like a 20-point one late in games.
Why Memphis Wins
However, I think Memphis’ defense steps up to the table and helps them win a low-scoring game. The Tiger defense has been solid all year, ranking 30th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. Memphis has the pieces to slow down the dribble penetration of Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely’s perimeter shooting. The Tigers should be able to take advantage of Virginia’s lack of shot creators and post scorers to slow the Cavaliers down even further.
Despite Virginia’s stingy defense, I expect Jahvon Quinerly and David Jones to continue their streak of play. The duo can impact this game, especially with their scoring and playmaking. Furthermore, their lack of a true interior defender and physical post presence at the center position should allow Malcolm Dandridge to be effective both on the glass and in the paint.
Give me the Tigers to move to 10-2 with another impressive win over a ranked opponent.
