Memphis Tiger fans eagerly look forward to a possible undefeated season and a chance at making the College Football Playoff.
But I encourage Tiger football players, coaches, and fans alike to take things one week at a time.
Optimism Bias
A peer-reviewed study by Plos One shows us the irrationality of being a fan. “Accordingly, we asked NFL fans to predict how many games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season. Fans, like ESPN reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team’s prospects.”
This group of biased fans and reporters collectively predicted that their teams would win over 300 games. In the 16-game schedule of the 2015 NFL season, that was a statistical improbability.
I’m not writing this with thoughts of “all fans are stupid” or “Tigers fans are more optimistic than the normal fan”.
I understand the optimism. I myself have predicted the Tigers to make a run at the ever-elusive College Football Playoff.
The rationale behind the optimism is more than understandable. The Tigers are coming off of a 10-win season and entering 2024, retain the important pieces of the coaching staff, hold onto star players like quarterback Seth Henigan, receiver Roc Taylor, and linebacker Chandler Martin, and grabbed studs out of the transfer portal like running back Mario Anderson and defensive back Kobee Minor.
Foregone Conclusions
But the reality of expecting an undefeated season means fans are setting themselves up for disappointment.
To cheer for the Tigers to make the college football playoff is fair. To understand the Tigers are one of the favorites to come out of the group of five is understandable.
But to have foregone conclusions that Memphis, who hasn’t done it since 1963, will be undefeated by season’s end, is setting yourself up to be disappointed.
Instead, enjoy Seth Henigan’s (the best Tiger quarterback of all time) senior season. Enjoy Roc Taylor and Chandler Martin as Tigers before heading to the NFL. Enjoy transfers like Kobee Minor and Elijah Herring before they exhaust their eligibility. Enjoy head coach Ryan Silverfield and offensive coordinator Tim Cramsey while they’re in the 901.
Don’t overanalyze it. That takes the joy out of it.
Take it week by week and enjoy good football.
The Tigers kick off their season on August 31st at home against South Alabama.
