This off-season has undoubtedly been a tumultuous one for Memphis basketball fans. From DeAndre Williams’ ongoing waiver situation to transfer portal chaos, the Tigers roster has been in flux since the final buzzer sounded against FAU.
The off-season is finally nearing its end, and the roster picture is becoming more evident. So what can Memphis fans expect in year six of the Penny Hardaway era?
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Less than 12 weeks until Memphis MBB is BACK in action.
Memphis’ roster is too talented to miss the NCAA tournament. And as one of the presumed favorites to win the American Athletic Conference, whose to say they won’t get an automatic bid?
But the NCAA tournament is called “March Madness” for a reason. Nothing is guaranteed in March and April as 64 teams vie for the championship. So, while it would certainly be disappointing for Memphis to lose in the first round, it’s not impossible.
Memphis’ roster consists of 12 new faces this off-season. This level of roster turnover is significant, but it isn’t something shocking in the transfer portal era. Regardless, a lack of continuity can certainly hurt a team. Chemistry will be essential for this roster to succeed early on. And if the Tigers falter in a demanding non-conference schedule, can they recover?
With the championship aspirations that Memphis country has this upcoming season, we must analyze the roster nationally, not just on the level of their AAC counterparts. We know the talent exists, but how does it compare to the nation’s best?
Biggest Concern: The Backcourt
Kendric Davis was massive for Memphis last season en route to winning the AAC tournament. His success points to the fact that guard creation is what you must rely on in big moments. Success from your backcourt reigns supreme in March when defenses tighten up and seasons are on the line.
The question must be asked: who replaces that production in the clutch?
Penny Hardaway added Jahvon Quinerly and Caleb Mills to man the backcourt for Memphis this off-season. But neither is necessarily the cream of the crop when it comes to backcourt talent available in the transfer portal.
Jahvon Quinerly
Quinerly comes in as the starting point guard for Memphis, and he’s the best isolation scorer on the roster. He scored 0.82 PPP (points per possession) in isolation opportunities last season. That ranked in the nation’s 58th percentile, per Synergy.
JQ had an inconsistent role throughout his career at Alabama, and with that came inconsistent results. After seeing significant success in a bench role in his first season with the Crimson Tide (SEC Tournament MVP), Quinerly’s efficiency faltered when asked to do more in his junior season. A torn ACL prevented fans from seeing how Quinerly faired in a more prominent role during the NCAA tournament.
We know the talent is there for Quinerly, but can he overcome his inconsistency and rise to the occasion for the Tigers? He’ll certainly have the opportunity to prove it.
Caleb Mills
Mills slots in as the starting shooting guard for Memphis. He’s a player with some experience as the #1 option at both Houston and FSU. But he never put up major numbers, and he’s never appeared in the NCAA tournament.
Mills is just an average ball-handler and overall creator. He had a 35 eFG% as an off-the-dribble shooter at FSU last season, a mark that ranked in the 15th percentile, per Synergy.
Both Quinerly and Mills are talented players with experience at the highest level. However, a deeper look at their profiles raises some concerns regarding how the pair will step up in their roles for the Memphis Tigers during March.
The Ceiling
Final Four appearance.
If DeAndre Williams is allowed to play this upcoming season, the sky is the limit for Penny Hardaway and the Memphis Tigers.
Memphis’ roster is built for success, not only in the AAC but in the NCAA tournament as well. It’s a team that has talented pieces across the board, with experience and production at all levels.
The Tigers were ranked 38th in Adjusted Defense last season, according to KenPom. Penny Hardaway’s teams always compete hard on the defensive end, and the Tigers have ample length on the perimeter to continue this trend. The Tigers are a team that is solid in all areas, and the opposition might have trouble finding a weakness.
If the bracket breaks the right way, who knows how far this team can go?
The Big Strength: The Frontcourt
The Memphis Tigers have one of the most formidable frontcourts in the nation heading into the 2023-24 season.
It starts at the power forward position with fifth-year senior DeAndre Williams, arguably the best PF in the country.
DeAndre Williams
The 6’9 forward was one of the most underrated players in the nation last season, averaging 17.7 PPG and 8.2 RPG en route to First-Team All-AAC honors.
Williams is a supremely efficient player, averaging 1.037 PPP on 60.6 TS% last season, per Synergy. His versatility will allow him to thrive this upcoming season as a #1 option. Williams can score in many ways. He uses his athleticism and improved shooting to be effective off the ball and his long strides to be elite in transition (1.327 PPP) and off the catch.
His physicality and soft touch allow him to score at a high rate on the inside, where he shot 60.6% at the rim.
For a big, Williams has some underrated creation ability. He posted a 1.23 assist-to-turnover ratio last season and had some nice passing flashes in various roles – in the post, as a PNR ball handler, and in the short roll. He shot 57.1% in the PNR ball handler role in 2022-23. And this should only go up with Jordan Brown in the mix.
Jordan Brown
Jordan Brown is the second piece of this elite frontcourt duo, a Louisiana transfer who won the Lou Henson Award for the best mid-major player in the nation.
Brown is a dominant post-up big with a deep bag of moves that allow him to finish at the rim. He shot 64.6% ATR last season, a mark in the 78th percentile, per Synergy. His physical playstyle enables him to protect the paint and rebound the ball. He posted a 3.9% block rate and a 9.3% offensive rebound rate last season.
He projects to pair well with the downhill playstyles of Jahvon Quinerly and Caleb Mills. His screening ability and effectiveness as a roll man will open up opportunities for Memphis’ offense in the paint.
Additional pieces like Malcolm Dandridge, a solid interior presence, and Temple transfer Nick Jourdain, a versatile stretch four, add further depth to an already strong Memphis frontcourt.
Putting it Together
Projecting Memphis’ end-of-season finish somewhere between their ceiling and floor feels more realistic. But the NCAA tournament is impossible to predict, and there are plenty of reasons to believe Memphis can make a long run or bow out early in March.
Guard Scoring
The Tigers have a versatile collection of scoring talent – particularly on the wing – but no true dominant isolation scorer. It’s a playstyle needed in March, and their best one is likely Jahvon Quinerly. He’s a player who’s had his ups and downs throughout his career. If Quinerly can step up and handle a more significant creation burden under Penny Hardaway, Memphis will be very successful.
Quinerly’s ability to beat defenders off the dribble and create opportunities for himself and his teammates will be critical this upcoming season. Once again, we know he can do it, but his consistency is the question.
Caleb Mills isn’t the most efficient scorer when asked to create on his own. His ability to get to the rim is impressive, though. If he can finish around the rim at a high rate, Memphis will have a strong tandem at the guard spot.
The Wing Depth
The Tigers seemingly have endless depth on the wing, but Jaykwon Walton and David Jones are the two that stand out the most. The pair has experience in big-time roles. Now, they’ll be asked to fit into a Memphis offense with plenty of options to put points on the board.
Walton is an athletic 3 & D wing who fits a prototype that every team needs. The Wichita State transfer posted a blistering 65.2 TS% last season and shot 40% from three. He’ll be important in replacing the defensive capabilities that Memphis lost with the departure of Teafale Lenard Jr.
Jones, on the other hand, was a much less efficient player for St. John’s. Pop on the film, however, and you see a versatile scorer who was asked to create too much for the Red Storm last season. A transition to a lesser role for the Tigers should improve his efficiency, but by how much?
Memphis will have plenty of players in new roles this upcoming season. How the team meshes and how individual players fit into new roles asked of them will be paramount in determining how far the Tigers can go.
While the team will have a wide range of outcomes, Tigers fans are together in their hope that this Memphis team goes all the way.
