Memphis will play Michigan in the 1st round of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament on November 22nd, sources tell Hitmen Hoops. The Tigers and the Wolverines will do battle against North Carolina, Stanford, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Villanova and Northern Iowa in the Bahamas.
Penny Hardaway and company will look to win one of the most competitive pre-season tournaments in college basketball. So, what can the Tigers expect in their opening matchup?
To answer this question, we’ve brought in Davis Moseley, a former insider for Michigan’s 247 site, to provide a scouting report of his Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan’s Roster Makeup
Like many other programs nationwide, Michigan has seen significant roster turnover this off-season. They lost their star center Hunter Dickinson to the transfer portal, who ended up at Kansas. They also saw two starters depart early to the draft in 1st round picks Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard.
That left head coach Juwan Howard with a challenging task to replace his three leading scorers, forcing him to tackle the transfer portal hard.
This off-season, Howard and company were able to add three high-major additions in Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua, Seton Hall transfer Tray Jackson and Alabama transfer Nimari Burnett. In their search for talent and experience through the portal, Michigan brought in three players who accumulated 241 games played and 85 starts at the Power 6 level.
Talented sophomores Dug McDaniel and Tarris Reed Jr. will round out the starting rotation for the Wolverines.
G – Dug McDaniel (SO) / 5’11, 160
G – Nimari Burnett (RS SO) / 6’4, 195
F – Tray Jackson (GR) / 6’10, 215
F – Olivier Nkamhoua (GR) / 6’9, 236
C – Tarris Reed Jr. (SO) / 6’10, 260
Off the bench, Michigan offers a nice blend of youth and experience.
At first glance, the Wolverines roster has a few glaring holes, particularly on the wing. Michigan brought in two wings from the portal in Burnett and Jackson. To round out that group, they could use improvements from Youssef Khayat and Terrance Williams II.
Dug McDaniel, a starter for Michigan last season, is one of the top returning-freshman point guards in the country. Second-year Big Ten guards typically take a sizable jump in their sophomore seasons, too. Look for the lightning-quick McDaniel to be involved in plenty of ball screens and dribble handoffs. Here, he graded out in the 68th and 92nd percentile in points per possession, respectively.
Olivier Nkamhoua has looked the part of an All-Big Ten performer in summer practices. Nkamhoua, one of the most talented offensive players Howard has had, will likely be the focal point of Michigan’s offense. The Wolverines will rely on him to put the ball in the basket.
Tarris Reed Jr. is a physical load at 6’10 and 260 pounds. Fouls were an issue for the freshman center, but Reed was able to flash impressive two-way ability in year one.
While Michigan projects to roll out a pretty formidable starting five next season, the team’s depth is currently a weakness. However, it could become a strength with one or two more additions to guys like Jaelin Llewellyn, Terrance Williams II, George Washington III, and Will Tschetter.
Under Juwan Howard, Michigan has relied on efficient offense and a slow pace. Given their current roster makeup for this season, I expect the philosophy to shift to a more defensive-minded, fast-paced play style.
I expect Michigan to be one of the better defensive teams in the country, and they will have to lean on their defense to win games this year.
How Each Team Wins
MEMPHIS
In our eyes, the three most significant factors for the Tigers to take down the Wolverines are perimeter shooting, physicality, and interior defense.
Michigan has a noticeable size advantage in this first-round matchup, meaning players like DeAndre Williams and Jordan Brown will have a more challenging time finishing on the inside. This paves the way for Jahvon Quinerly, Jaykwon Walton, Caleb Mills, David Jones and Jonathan Pierre to provide a critical role in this one, given their ability to stretch the floor with their outside shooting and open up driving lanes.
With their roster, Michigan will look to be a defensive-oriented team this season. Their size could also prove troublesome for the Tigers. Juwan Howard’s squad has plenty of college basketball experience, especially at the high-major level. They will look to “rough up the game” in a sense, aiming to take advantage of said size and hopefully earn a psychological advantage in the process. If Memphis hopes to win this one, it must match that physicality.
Michigan will also operate in the paint on the offensive end, using their length to finish over Memphis defenders. Players like Brown, Williams, and Nick Jourdain must protect the rim effectively in this one. If so, the Tigers will have a good chance to win.
MICHIGAN
Like Memphis, Michigan needs to muddy this game up, which also plays into Memphis’ strengths. Both teams are physical and athletic, but the Wolverines must “out-Memphis” the Tigers to win this game.
Michigan has ample size to disrupt guys like DeAndre Williams and Jordan Brown, and their defensive-minded guards like McDaniel and Burnett will need to outplay Jahvon Quinerly and Caleb Mills.
The one matchup I have my eyes on is Tray Jackson and David Jones. Jackson has the size, shooting, and athletic advantage on paper, but the production hasn’t been at the level of Jones, who was a 13 PPG scorer at St. John’s. Jackson, who graded out in the 86th percentile in isolation efficiency, will need to take advantage of Jones in isolation sets while containing him on the other end with his length and athleticism.
Oliver Nkamhoua and Deandre Williams will be two of the best power forwards in college basketball next season, and the winner of that matchup could swing the result of the game.
The Wolverines will need shooting off the bench from guys like Llewellyn, Washington III, and Williams II to stick with the Tigers. If they knock down shots and win the rebounding battle, they’ll have a chance to win the game.
Who is the X-Factor?
Memphis: Jahvon Quinerly, only if he can shoot effectively from the perimeter. Quinerly’s shooting will go a long way toward opening up a solid Michigan defense that will try to prevent Jordan Brown and DeAndre Williams from scoring on the inside. In addition, Quinerly’s speed can help the Tigers beat the Wolverines down the court and get easy baskets in transition.
Michigan: Michigan has multiple transfers that could be the x-factor, but my eyes go to another Alabama transfer in Nimari Burnett. Burnett is a former McDonald’s All-American and five-star recruit. Throughout his three-year career, he’s struggled with inconsistent roles and injuries. With sets specifically called for him to get looks to score, Burnett could become one of the premier two-way players in the Big Ten, as he is an impressive defender with great measurables.
Score Predictions
Wyatt: Memphis wins 66-62. This game will be a close, low-scoring, and defensive-oriented matchup. But, Memphis’ frontcourt and wing depth will be enough to win this one in the second half.
Davis: Memphis takes this first-round matchup in a low-scoring affair, 63-57. Despite the low score, the stars will play well. In the end, however, the Tigers’ depth outlasts the Wolverines. Michigan finds a way to keep it close, with a chance to win, but like Michigan fans saw so many times last season, the Wolverines come up short in the final few minutes. Memphis sinks some late free throws and walks away with a six-point victory.
