Memphis kicks off the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament with a matchup against Michigan in the Bahamas. The game will take place in Paradise Island and tips off at 4 p.m. on Wednesday, November 22nd. ESPN2 will have the coverage of the game.
What can Memphis fans expect from Michigan?
Michigan Roster Preview
Michigan is a Big Ten program coached by Juwan Howard. The fourth-year head coach has yet to man the sidelines this season as he recovers from an off-season heart procedure. Assistant coach Phil Martelli has coached in his place and will continue to do so in the Bahamas.
The Wolverines are 3-1 on the young season. They have a convincing victory over St. John’s and a disappointing loss to Long Beach St. on their record. Despite losing Hunter Dickinson to the transfer portal and having two top-15 picks in the 2023 NBA Draft (Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin), Michigan has arguably been an improved team this year.
Backcourt Rotation
Sophomore point guard Dug McDaniel has emerged as a breakout star for the Wolverines. The speedy floor general is a shifty playmaker, averaging 21 points and 6.3 assists per game. He’s also shot 41.4% from three through four games.
Starting alongside McDaniel in the backcourt is graduate guard Nimari Burnett. The former McDonald’s All-American has been inconsistent this season, but he can make a big impact when on. Burnett went off against St. John’s, scoring 21 points with four three-pointers. He’s an off-ball shot-maker who adds tough defense on the other end, averaging 9.8 PPG on the season thus far.
Bench Options
The backcourt depth for Michigan is lacking right now, and that’s one of the team’s more prominent weaknesses. Presumed backup point guard Jaelin Llewellyn is recovering from an ACL tear from last December. The Princeton transfer averaged 7 PPG for the Wolverines in just eight games last year.
Junior wing Jace Howard, the son of Juwan, has also yet to play this season. He played 7.8 minutes a night in 30 games last season. Freshman point guard George Washington III has played just under ten minutes a night backing up McDaniel this season. The speedy guard has chipped in 1.3 PPG.
Frontcourt Rotation
Michigan’s frontcourt rotation is incredibly deep, and it starts with Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua. The senior forward has been much better in his role for the Wolverines, averaging 18.3 PPG and 8.8 rebounds on the season. Nkamhoua has shown an improved ability to shoot the ball in Ann Arbor, making 44.4% of his attempts from beyond the arc. The duo of Nkahmoua and McDaniel is extremely formidable due to the pair’s chemistry.
Sophomore Tarris Reed Jr. covers the center position and is a breakout candidate in the making following the departure of Hunter Dickinson to Kansas. Reed is a physical and imposing presence inside on both ends of the court and competes hard. He’s averaged 7.8 PPG and 6.5 RPG this season.
Senior forward Terrance Williams II rounds out the starting rotation and has been one of the team’s most improved players. Williams is a 6’7 versatile wing with a good perimeter jump shot (40.9 3PT%) and the ability to put the ball on the deck. After struggling in years past, he took a major jump this season, now averaging 12.5 PPG.
Bench Options
The frontcourt options don’t stop there for the Wolverines, as the bench players are also formidable. Sophomore Will Tschetter and graduate Tray Jackson round out an eight-man rotation for Phil Martelli’s squad.
Tschetter is another Michigan player who has taken a leap in production this season. He averages 10.5 PPG on 76.2% shooting from the floor. The 6’8 forward is a high IQ player who consistently makes the right plays on the floor. Tschetter has shot the three ball well this season, connecting on seven of his nine attempts from beyond the arc.
Jackson is a transfer from Seton Hall who started to find a groove in Michigan’s system against Long Beach State when he scored 17 points. He’s a 6’10 forward who plays more like a wing, possessing the ability to shoot the ball and put it on the floor. Jackson is a good athlete and a real mismatch problem for opposing frontcourts. He’s averaging 7.5 PPG on the young season.
Prediction
Once this matchup was revealed in the preseason, we analyzed the rosters and made our prediction on the game with the help of Michigan 247 staffer Davis Moseley.
However, things have changed just one week into the season for each team. Most notably, Michigan has received leaps from unexpected players like senior Terrance Williams II and sophomore Will Tschetter. The Wolverines’ offense has been truly elite this year, averaging 91.5 PPG through four games. However, the defense, which we predicted would be one of the team’s strong suits, has struggled early on. This poor performance on that end includes allowing 94 points to Long Beach State in a loss.
For Memphis, things have gone about as expected, except for the starting lineup Rick Stansbury put on the court for the season’s first two games. Before returning to traditional form against Alabama State, Jordan Brown and Caleb Mills (projected starters coming into the year) came off the bench. Outside of this, however, things have been mostly the norm for the Tigers, with transfers David Jones, Jaykwon Walton, Jahvon Quinerly, and Jordan Brown leading the charge.
Memphis’ Big Advantage
The Tigers have a depth advantage, with Michigan only playing an eight-man rotation due to injuries. While the depth for the Wolverines is quality, Memphis’ fast pace and pressure defense could wear them out throughout the game. The Tigers have played nine players over ten minutes a night, including Jayden Hardaway, Malcolm Dandridge, Nick Jourdain, and Jayden Hardaway off the bench. Ashton Hardaway and Jonathan Pierre have played in spurts as well.
Memphis should win this game if they continue their run-and-gun offense in the Bahamas and get good performances from their bench unit. The Tigers have shot over 40% from three as a team so far this season, headlined by Walton (53.8%), Jones (52.6%), and Quinerly (46.2%).
The length that players like Walton, Jones, and Mills have on the wing can give other teams fits on the defensive end. Furthermore, a healthy Jahvon Quinerly can change a game on the offensive end, as we saw against Missouri. His speed and shiftiness make it hard for opponents to keep up with over 40 minutes.
Michigan’s Big Advantage
Despite their lack of depth, Michigan has a significant size advantage in this contest.
The Wolverines roll out a frontcourt that includes 6’7 Terrance Williams II, 6’9 Olivier Nkamhoua, and 6’10 Tarris Reed Jr. Off the bench, they have 6’8 Will Tschetter and 6’10 Tray Jackson, who can play the small forward spot. Nimari Burnett is a defensive pest who possesses a 6’9.5 wingspan. Dug McDaniel is one of the fastest players in college basketball who uses his speed to bother opposing guards as a defender.
It will be interesting to see how Memphis’ frontcourt of Jones (6’6), Walton (6’7), and Brown (6’11) will defend the height of Michigan.
Who Wins?
I expect this game to be one of Memphis’ toughest matchups all year. The Wolverines probably have the best player in this one in sophomore point guard Dug McDaniel, and Olivier Nkamhoua is a fantastic complementary piece.
Michigan has the length to disrupt the Tigers’ options on the wing with Williams II, Jackson, and Burnett. Memphis will have to contend with their physicality throughout the game.
With the way both offenses have thrived and both defenses have struggled early on, however, expect this to be a high-scoring matchup. Both teams will want to get out and run and put shots up. This style favors Memphis, whose depth should allow them to be in better shape as the game comes to a close.
The matchup of Quinerly and McDaniel should be fantastic as well. McDaniel has shown tantalizing potential this season, while Quinerly has been a tremendous fit in Memphis’ offensive system. If Quinerly, who has dealt with some inconsistency issues in the past, can continue his excellent play and win this matchup, the Tigers will win.
In the end, I think the Tigers take this one. With Penny Hardaway back on the sidelines, I trust Memphis to make more stops on the defensive end. Furthermore, Memphis’ defensive pressure should make it challenging for Dug McDaniel, who carries a heavy load in Michigan’s backcourt due to injury.
Final Score: Memphis 81, Michigan 77.
