After a three-game losing streak in January, Memphis enters the stretch run of the 2023-24 season on the NCAA Tournament bubble. With just seven games remaining on the schedule, what do the Tigers need to do to ensure that they boost their resume and earn an at-large bid to March Madness?
The Criterion That Matter
There are a variety of statistical data points that the NCAA Tournament committee looks at when deciding which teams to put in the 68-team bracket on Selection Sunday.
A major component is where a team stands in the NCAA’s NET Rankings. These rankings judge how teams perform against quality opponents both at home and away.
Memphis currently sits at #75 in the country in the NET Rankings, a mark that would unquestionably put them just outside the tournament. The NCAA’s quadrant system is a significant factor when it comes to determining a team’s resume. The quadrant system determines the quality of a team’s overall wins and losses according to game location and the opponent’s NET ranking.
The Four Quadrants
The following are the four quadrants in the NCAA NET Ranking system.
Quadrant 1:
Home – Opponent is between 1-30 in NET Rankings.
Neutral – Opponent is between 1-50 in NET Rankings.
Away – Opponent is between 1-75 in NET Rankings.
Quadrant 2:
Home – Opponent is between 31-75 in NET Rankings.
Neutral – Opponent is between 51-100 in NET Rankings.
Away – Opponent is between 76-135 in NET Rankings.
Quadrant 3:
Home – Opponent is between 76-160 in NET Rankings.
Neutral – Opponent is between 101-200 in NET Rankings.
Away – Opponent is between 135-240 in NET Rankings.
Quadrant 4:
Home – Opponent is between 161-353 in NET Rankings.
Neutral – Opponent is between 201-353 in NET Rankings.
Away – Opponent is between 241-353 in NET Rankings.
Memphis’ Records in Each Quadrant
The Tigers possess a 18-6 overall record, with a 7-4 record in conference. Here is their record within within each quadrant.
Quadrant 1: The Tigers are 3-2 in Q1 games this season.
WINS
VCU (85-80, A)
Texas A&M (81-75, A)
Clemson (79-77, H)
LOSSES
Villanova (79-63, N)
Ole Miss (80-77, A)
Quadrant 2: The Tigers are 2-2 in Q2 games this season.
WINS
Virginia (77-54, H)
SMU (62-59, H)
LOSSES
Tulane (81-79, A)
UAB (97-88, A)
Quadrant 3: The Tigers are 7-1 in Q3 games this season.
WINS
Missouri (70-55, A)
Michigan (71-67, N)
Arkansas (84-79, N)
Tulsa (78-75, A)
Wichita St. (112-86, A)
Tulane (90-78, H)
Wichita St. (65-63, H)
LOSSES
South Florida (74-73, H)
Quadrant 4: The Tigers are 6-1 in Q4 games this season.
WINS
Jackson St. (99-74, H)
Alabama St. (92-75, H)
Vanderbilt (77-75, H)
Austin Peay (81-70, H)
UTSA (107-101, H)
Temple (84-77, A)
LOSSES
Rice (74-71, H)
The Key Games for the Resume
When it comes time to evaluate a team’s resume before the NCAA Tournament selection comittee, Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses are especially important.
Memphis has a home win against Clemson and wins on the road against VCU and Texas A&M that will be important features on their resume. Be that as it may, their home losses to Rice and South Florida could prove concerning.
Key Games from Opponents
Memphis will also be paying close attention to the results of opponents teetering on the edge of certain quadrants. A previous win against an opponent that moves up a quadrant due to future success or a previous loss to an opponent that moves down a quadrant due to future failure may prove crucial down the road.
For instance, VCU, which currently sits at #73 in the NET, is on the verge of becoming a Quad 2 road victory for Memphis rather than a Quad 1. Clemson, which currently sits at #28 in the NET, is also on the verge of becoming a Quad 2 home victory for the Tigers. On the other hand, Memphis’ win over Virginia (#32 in the NET), could eventually become a Quad 1 home victory if the Cavaliers continue winning.
Here are some key games from opponents that Memphis fans should look out for:
2/13 – #21 Virginia vs. Pitt (#59 in NET, Quadrant 2 opponent)
2/14 – Clemson vs. Miami (#69 in NET, Quadrant 2 opponent)
2/17 – Clemson vs. Wake Forest (#35 in NET, Quadrant 2 opponent)
2/19 – #21 Virginia @ Virginia Tech (#69 in NET, Quadrant 1 opponent)
2/24 – #21 Virginia vs. #7 North Carolina (#10 in NET, Quadrant 1 opponent)
2/27 – Clemson vs. Pitt (#59 in NET, Quadrant 2 opponent)
2/28 – #21 Virginia @ Boston College (#93 in NET, Quadrant 2 opponent)
3/2 – #21 Virginia @ #9 Duke (#17 in NET, Quadrant 1 opponent)
3/2 – VCU @ Richmond (#70 in NET, Quadrant 1 opponent)
3/8 – VCU @ #16 Dayton (#18 in NET, Quadrant 1 opponent)
3/9 – Clemson @ Wake Forest (#35 in NET, Quadrant 1 opponent)
Other Criterion That Matter
Memphis’ overall record in the non-conference, on the road, and on neutral sites will also be helpful for the Tigers. Penny Hardaway’s squad finished 11-2 in non-conference play, with key wins over opponents such as Texas A&M, Clemson, VCU, and Virginia. They have also been good on the road, with a 6-3 record that includes wins over VCU, Texas A&M, and Missouri. Finally, their successful trip to the Bahamas in the Battle 4 Atlantis that saw the Tigers make it to the tournament championship with wins over Michigan and Arkansas will be helpful in the eyes of the selection committee.
Another data point that matters is Memphis’ Strength of Schedule (SOS), both overall and in non-conference play. The Tigers are 84th overall in SOS with a 4.4 rating. Furthermore, in non-conference play, Memphis finished with a rank of 25th, including a 6.2 ranking. This shows that the weak opponents the team faces in the AAC is undoubtedly weighing down their strength of schedule.
Other Ranking Systems
KenPom – #78
RPI – #45
BartTorvik – #90
BPI – #77
Haslam – #101
Resume Building Opportunities
Memphis has just recently embarked on an eight-game stretch to close the season that includes plenty of resume-building opportunities, particularly on the road. Taking care of business in games they should be favored in against quality opponents will certainly be crucial for convincing bracketologists of Memphis’ status heading into Selection Sunday a few weeks from now.
Here are Memphis’ final seven opponents and where they rank in the NET.
2/15 – @ North Texas (#78 in NET, Quadrant 2 opponent)
2/18 – @ SMU (#43 in NET, Quadrant 1 opponent)
2/21 – Charlotte (#98 in NET, Quadrant 3 opponent)
2/25 – #24 FAU (#26 in NET, Quadrant 1 opponent)
2/29 – @ East Carolina (#186 in NET, Quadrant 3 opponent)
3/3 – UAB (#118 in NET, Quadrant 3 opponent)
3/9 – @ #24 FAU (#26 in NET, Quadrant 1 opponent)
Memphis’ home game against FAU could become a Quadrant 2 game, while the Tigers’ road game against North Texas could turn into a Quadrant 1 game. Furthermore, games against SMU, FAU, and North Texas serve as key opportunities for Memphis to boost their resume. Meanwhile, the Tigers must avoid suffering losses against the likes of Charlotte, ECU, and UAB.
Does Memphis Make It In?
At this point in the season, the Memphis Tigers are likely on the outside looking in when it comes to earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers will have to take advantage of the remaining resume boosting opportunities on their schedule and get good results from their previous opponents moving forward.
Overall, these factors, compared with a successful AAC tournament run should put the Tigers on the right side of the bubble if they are unable to secure the AAC Conference Championship title.
Thus far, Memphis is off to a good start with a three-game winning streak in the month of February. However, can they continue their recent success after a near disastrous end to January? Only time will tell.
